Veros Sees Strength in Texas Home Values, Declines for Florida, Nevada
09/27/2010 By: Carrie Bay
The Texas metro areas of Houston and Dallas show the strongest home price appreciation over the next 12 months in the most recent update to the U.S. real estate market forecast from Veros Real Estate Solutions.
The California-based risk management and valuation service provider says its analysis shows Texas cities leading the nation, with home prices in these areas expected to post the biggest gains in the months ahead.
Meanwhile, Florida home markets continue to struggle as the state placed four metro areas in the rankings of the five projected weakest markets in Veros’ forecast. The Las Vegas and Reno metros also made the weakest-markets list. The company says key markets in Florida and Nevada will likely see home prices drop another 6-7 percent over the next year.
“Texas is looking strong, with four of the top ten markets in the appreciation forecast,†said Eric Fox, Veros’ VP of statistical and economic modeling.
Fox added that California markets are less robust than in previous quarterly updates, but remain steady, with the Riverside/San Bernardino market faring the best in the state due to affordability and seasonal trends. He also noted that Anchorage, Alaska is showing modest gains, as are the Central Plains areas of Illinois and Iowa.
Veros called its home price forecasts for certain states in the central Great Plains region “especially good.†These
hallmarks of appreciation include Texas, Louisiana, Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota.
Projected Five Strongest Markets
1.Houston/Sugar Land/Baytown, Texas +3.8%
2.Dallas/Fort Worth/Arlington, Texas +2.7%
3.Amarillo, Texas +2.7%
4.Anchorage, Alaska +2.7%
5.Davenport/Moline/Rock Island, Iowa-Illinois +2.7%
In marked contrast to the forecast for Texas, the outlook for Florida remains weak, but Fox says there is some improvement in negative growth markets in the Sunshine State.
“For example, the Daytona area was at -8.3 percent last quarter and this forecast shows an improved change to -6.0 percent,†Fox explained. “There are more Florida communities on the weakest market list this time, but they appear to be depreciating at a reduced rate.â€
Projected Five Weakest Markets
1.Port St. Lucie/Fort Pierce, Florida -7.2%
2.Reno/Sparks, Nevada -7.0%
3.Orlando/Kissimmee, Florida -6.3%
4.Las Vegas/Paradise, Nevada -6.1%
5.Deltona/Daytona/Ormond Beach, Florida -6.0%
“Approximately one-third of the markets forecast are expected to appreciate in the next 12 months, and two-thirds are expected to depreciate,†Fox said. “In the longer 12- to 24-month horizon, we anticipate this ratio to even out to 50-50, with half appreciating gently and half depreciating similarly.â€
According to Fox, “There are tangible indications that things are getting better as time moves on.â€
Veros’ utilizes more than 50 critical decisioning factors in its forecast analytics to develop market trend predictions covering more than 900 counties, more than 300 metro areas, and nearly 14,000 ZIP codes. Key factors range from interest, unemployment, and inflation rates, to housing inventory levels, as well as economic and geographic trends.
From: http://www.dsnews.com/articles/veros-sees-strength-in-texas-home-values-declines-for-florida-and-nevada-2010-09-27
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Moody's Forecast for Housing and the Economy: Dim
Moody's Forecast for Housing and the Economy: Dim
09/21/2010 By: Carrie Bay
The analysts at Moody’s Investors Service are downbeat in their outlook for both the U.S. economy and the housing market. In the agency’s ResiLandscape report issued last week, they warn that there’s a stronger chance the country will slide back into a recession, and they are forecasting a “longer and deeper housing correction.â€
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, said in the report, “We have lowered the near-term economic outlook and raised the risk of a double-dip recession from one in four to one in three.â€
He says the U.S. recovery has lost significant momentum since the spring. Retailing, housing, business investment, and industrial activity have all weakened, and the job market is no longer improving. After ticking higher to 9.6 percent in August, Zandi is expecting the nation’s unemployment rate to drift back into double digits in the coming months.
“The recovery is sputtering,†according to Zandi, and the odds of a double-dip recession during the coming year have risen “uncomfortably high.â€
On the housing side, Celia Chen, senior director for Moody’s Analytics says the market’s nascent recovery is already back-sliding into a double-dip.
“We have downgraded the near-term housing outlook based on the lingering weakness in the demand for homes, the expectation that job creation will remain soft this year, and the slow speed at which the mortgage industry is working through distressed mortgages,†Chen said in the report.
Chen expects house prices to fall until the third quarter of next year, significantly longer than Moody’s previous projections of a first-quarter 2011 bottom in home prices.
According to Chen, the change to a longer correction is primarily fueled by the slow disposition of repossessed homes. She says the flood of 4 million homes either in late-stage delinquency or foreclosure is clogging the foreclosure pipeline from the servicers to the courtrooms, creating delays.
Distortions due to the homebuyer tax credits offered last year and this year are also partially to blame for the expected double-dip, Chen says.
Housing’s double-dip correction will hamper the broader economy’s already slow pace upward, but it will not drag the economy back into recession, according to the report. Moody’s says the nearly five-year correction has sharply diminished housing’s contribution to national output and job growth.
The upside of this trend is that the economy is less reliant on housing activity and thus housing’s double-dip will have less of a drag on the economy, the analysts explained. The double-dip housing correction, however, does raise the downside risks for the economy, they say.
There was one positive note in Moody’s report. The agency says the Federal Reserve’s directive aimed at protecting mortgage borrowers from aggressive lending practices, which was issued last month, will enhance transparency and alignment of interests between loan originators and borrowers and will likely lower rates and fees for borrowers.
These changes, which become effective April 1, 2011, will translate into lower defaults on mortgage loans in the future, Moody’s said. The directive puts restrictions on loan originators’ compensation, prevents dual compensation to mortgage brokers and loan officers from consumers and lenders, and prohibits “steering,†the practice by which loan originators direct borrowers to less-than-optimal mortgage products in return for higher compensation.
From: http://ping.fm/Pa0um
09/21/2010 By: Carrie Bay
The analysts at Moody’s Investors Service are downbeat in their outlook for both the U.S. economy and the housing market. In the agency’s ResiLandscape report issued last week, they warn that there’s a stronger chance the country will slide back into a recession, and they are forecasting a “longer and deeper housing correction.â€
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, said in the report, “We have lowered the near-term economic outlook and raised the risk of a double-dip recession from one in four to one in three.â€
He says the U.S. recovery has lost significant momentum since the spring. Retailing, housing, business investment, and industrial activity have all weakened, and the job market is no longer improving. After ticking higher to 9.6 percent in August, Zandi is expecting the nation’s unemployment rate to drift back into double digits in the coming months.
“The recovery is sputtering,†according to Zandi, and the odds of a double-dip recession during the coming year have risen “uncomfortably high.â€
On the housing side, Celia Chen, senior director for Moody’s Analytics says the market’s nascent recovery is already back-sliding into a double-dip.
“We have downgraded the near-term housing outlook based on the lingering weakness in the demand for homes, the expectation that job creation will remain soft this year, and the slow speed at which the mortgage industry is working through distressed mortgages,†Chen said in the report.
Chen expects house prices to fall until the third quarter of next year, significantly longer than Moody’s previous projections of a first-quarter 2011 bottom in home prices.
According to Chen, the change to a longer correction is primarily fueled by the slow disposition of repossessed homes. She says the flood of 4 million homes either in late-stage delinquency or foreclosure is clogging the foreclosure pipeline from the servicers to the courtrooms, creating delays.
Distortions due to the homebuyer tax credits offered last year and this year are also partially to blame for the expected double-dip, Chen says.
Housing’s double-dip correction will hamper the broader economy’s already slow pace upward, but it will not drag the economy back into recession, according to the report. Moody’s says the nearly five-year correction has sharply diminished housing’s contribution to national output and job growth.
The upside of this trend is that the economy is less reliant on housing activity and thus housing’s double-dip will have less of a drag on the economy, the analysts explained. The double-dip housing correction, however, does raise the downside risks for the economy, they say.
There was one positive note in Moody’s report. The agency says the Federal Reserve’s directive aimed at protecting mortgage borrowers from aggressive lending practices, which was issued last month, will enhance transparency and alignment of interests between loan originators and borrowers and will likely lower rates and fees for borrowers.
These changes, which become effective April 1, 2011, will translate into lower defaults on mortgage loans in the future, Moody’s said. The directive puts restrictions on loan originators’ compensation, prevents dual compensation to mortgage brokers and loan officers from consumers and lenders, and prohibits “steering,†the practice by which loan originators direct borrowers to less-than-optimal mortgage products in return for higher compensation.
From: http://ping.fm/Pa0um
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
.JPG)