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Friday, April 29, 2011

QRM: Missing the Forest for the Trees, Posted by Gary : Voices of Real Estate

QRM: Missing the Forest for the Trees,

April 25, 2011 by NAR

Do you know what the leading cause of foreclosure is?

Survey says: Poor underwriting.

When a lender makes an unwise decision and gives a loan to a borrower with a poor credit history, that’s what leads to foreclosure. This is what happened with “toxic” subprime loans that required little, and even worse, no verification.

I make this point because a rule in the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill is stipulating that borrowers must make a 20-percent or more down payment in order to be deemed a “qualified residential mortgage” (QRM). If a mortgage isn’t labeled a QRM, then the lender must retain five percent of the loan risk.

If you’ve just taken a hard swallow, I’m with you. This rule, if implemented, will have widespread effects on the housing industry, especially during a fragile market recovery. And what’s worse, I think it’s missing the forest for the trees.

The data doesn’t show a link between down payment size and whether the loan performs well. FHA and VA loans boast low default rates. They also are the programs with the lowest minimum down payment requirements.

The QRM rule has good intentions. It wants to incentivize lenders to stay away from risky loans. I’m all for that. No one wants to see the housing market and our nation’s economy hit the crisis levels we saw back in 2008.

But a 20-percent down payment stipulation will have one result—even tighter credit than we’re seeing today. Borrowers will have an incredibly hard time getting a loan, and all for what? To save America from more foreclosures? Probably not. Because the data shows lenders should make decisions based on the whole picture of a borrower, not just how much money they can lay on the table.

And how many of us have that kind of cash lying around? The median cost of a home in Dallas, Texas, is about $160,000. You’d have to come to the table with more than $32,000 in your pocket. How many years would it take a family to save this much money living on an average salary of $40,000 a year? And that’s just for Dallas. What about consumers in high-cost areas such as California, New York, or Washington, D.C.?

Home ownership has built our nation and made it strong. We can still protect consumers and our national economy if we move forward with wise laws that take into account the whole forest, not just individual trees. – Gary Thomas, 2011 NAR First Vice President



From: http://ping.fm/4Fs5M

Thursday, April 28, 2011



























































































QRM: Proposed QRM Harms Creditworthy Borrowers And Housing Recovery (In-depth Analysis, April 13, 2011)

Proposed QRM Harms Creditworthy Borrowers And Housing Recovery

The following organizations, along with NAR, prepared an in-depth analysis of the impact of the proposed QRM regulation:

• Center for Responsible Lending,
• Community Mortgage Banking Project,
• Mortgage Bankers Association,
• Mortgage Insurance Companies of America, and
• National Association of Home Builders.
They developed the joint white paper in advance of the House Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises hearing on the Qualified Residential Mortgage, which took place on April 14, 2011.

The executive summary of the white paper, entitled, “Proposed QRM Harms Creditworthy Borrowers and Housing Recovery,” is provided below, or the entire white paper is available for download as a PDF. The executive summary was also issued as a joint statement.

Executive Summary (and statement)

In the midst of a very fragile housing recovery, the government is throwing a devastating, unnecessary and very expensive wrench into the American dream. First time homebuyers will have to choose between higher rates today or a 9-14 year delay while they save up the necessary down payment. And 25 million current homeowners would be locked out of lower refinancing rates because they lack the required 25 percent equity in their homes.

High down payment and equity requirements will not have a meaningful impact on default rates. But they will require millions of consumers, who are at low risk of default, to either put off buying a home or pay unnecessarily high rates. The government is penalizing responsible consumers, making homeownership more expensive or simply out of reach for millions. We urge regulators to develop a final rule that encourages good lending and borrowing without punishing credit-worthy consumers.

Download “Proposed QRM Harms Creditworthy Borrowers and Housing Recovery” white paper > (PDF: 680KB)






From: http://ping.fm/UnITV

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Industry News 4-13-11...

Breaking News: The drive to reform the government-sponsored enterprises is raising two questions that could fundamentally reshape the way borrowers obtain home loans: will a revamp effectively eliminate the 30-year fixed rate loan, and would that be a good thing? For decades, it's been conventional wisdom that the 30-year fixed rate home loan is the best option for most homeowners, and any attempt to restrain or supplant it has largely failed to take hold. But efforts to replace Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are likely to — at the very least — make such home loans more expensive. Depending on what approach Congress and the Obama administration take, the ultimate plan could eliminate such types of loans entirely. While that prospect likely still disturbs many banks and lawmakers, some in the industry say it is time to reevaluate the benefits of the 30-year fixed loan. "There is a lot of skepticism about whether it is quite the gold standard as some hold it up to be," said Bert Ely, an independent consultant based in Alexandria, Va. "Fannie and Freddie did a very effective job of convincing Americans that a 30-year fixed rate loan was the thing to get. But one of the things that is happening very slowly is some rethinking whether a 30-year fixed rate is the best thing to get." The 30-year fixed-rate has evolved into the traditional home loan in the United States, although it has proven far less popular in other countries. Its advent mostly owes to implicit or explicit government backing, because banks generally are unwilling to hold such long-term maturities which are funded by short-term deposits. But fixed rate loans with such long terms require some kind of securitization vehicle to buy them. If Fannie and Freddie are eliminated and the government's role reduced, it's not clear if any fully private market player would be willing to take up that mantle. Source: National Mortgage News

The trend of paying credit cards before home loans became more pronounced in the 2010 fourth quarter. TransUnion reports that among consumers with a home loan and at least one credit card, 7.24 percent were 30 days late on the loan payment but current on credit cards, compared to 4.3 percent in early 2008. By contrast, 3.03 percent of consumers were at least 30 days late on credit cards but current on their home loan during the fourth quarter, compared to 4.1 percent three years ago. Source: St. Louis Dispatch

New, higher premiums on Federal Housing Administration-backed loans are meant to protect the government-backed program from the growing risk of losing money from loan defaults. But it will also make FHA loans more expensive, a key issue for homebuilders, where as many as 60% of new-home buyers use these types of loans to make their purchase. In a report released by Credit Suisse, the tougher and costlier FHA-insured loans will hurt affordability and reduce the buyer pool—especially among first-time buyers—when the higher premiums arrive. Beginning April 18, the FHA will increase premiums 25 basis points to 115 basis point for loans with loan-to-values above 95%. In addition, higher downpayment requirements would likely be damaging to builders that have focused on the low-end market, where buyers struggle to reach the 3.5% minimum, wrote lead analyst Daniel Oppenheim—though he noted that “from a policy perspective, it is tough to argue against raising downpayment requirements from current levels.” This shift will impact builders with the greatest exposure to FHA-backed buyers—including KB Home, Richmond American Homes and Ryland, where 62% to 72% of their customers bought homes with FHA mortgages in 2010. Credit Suisse projects the FHA will increase the minimum downpayment to 5%, an increase of $3,000 on a $200,000 home. In addition, the report projects that the FHA will likely over time increase monthly premiums further, to 155 basis points, and reduce loan limits. Source: National Mortgage News

The discussion over whether private MI should be included in the definition of a qualified residential mortgage, and therefore exempt from Dodd-Frank risk retention requirements, continues to keep insurers in the dark about their future. The PMI Group Inc., a private mortgage insurer, stepped forward asking for more discussion after regulators proposed guidelines saying lenders and securitizers will be exempt from a rule requiring them to retain a 5% stake on loans that meet QRM standards, which is essentially home loans with 20% down payments. The presence of insurance as some type of alternative to a 20% downpayment is not included in the current proposal."While we are disappointed that the regulators chose a very narrow and restrictive definition of QRM, we are encouraged that they are seeking comment on an alternative QRM definition that would involve a 10 percent down payment and more reliance on private MI," said David Katkov, PMI's executive vice president and chief business officer. "Additionally, we believe that prudentially underwritten loans with less than a 10 percent down payment and private MI should also be included in the definition." Source: HousingWire

The House passed a bill March 30 to kill a signature Obama administration program that helps homeowners stay in their homes but has faced criticism as ineffective. The House voted 252 to 170 to stop any new funding for the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). Eleven Democrats joined Republicans to defund the program. The program taps the federal bailout that saved the big banks, providing incentives to servicers to modify home loans for borrowers behind on their payments. "To many struggling Americans seeking permanent relief, HAMP offered little more than false hope. More homeowners have been kicked out of the program than have received permanent relief," Rep. Darrell Issa, the California Republican who chairs the House Oversight Committee, said in a statement. The bill's path in the Senate is uncertain. President Obama has vowed to veto it. Already, House Republicans have passed three other smaller programs designed to help families and neighborhoods dealing with foreclosure. What makes the HAMP program different is the widespread criticism it has received, from both Republicans and Democrats, for being ineffective. "It would put an end to the poster child for failed federal foreclosure programs," said Rep. Judy Biggert, an Illinois Republican. On Tuesday, 50 House Democrats wrote Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner a letter, urging him to reform the program, saying "HAMP must change to meet its potential." Source: CNN/Money

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Is Bernanke an Inflation Pollyanna? Bill Gross Thinks So - CNBC

Bernanke an Inflation Pollyanna? Bill Gross Thinks So

By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Staff Writer



For monetary policy hawks, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s latest strategy could be seen as a small victory. The central bank head at least has gotten around to mentioning inflation, even if he isn’t quite ready to do anything about it.

Bernanke delivered a policy speech Monday in which he declared recent inflation pressures to be “transitory” and of no major threat to the economic recovery. Ultimately, he did acknowledge that his assumptions could be wrong and promised to monitor the situation closely, but gave little indication of major care about the inflation problem.

On cue, the commodity markets continued their nearly unabated rally Tuesday.

Brent crude oil surged past $122 a barrel to approach its record high; silver prices briefly eclipsed $39 and most traders believe $40 is only a matter of time; and gold plowed past $1,450 an ounce as the classic inflation hedge paid little heed to the chairman’s words.

Bernanke and other doves believe the blinding surge in commodities and associated input costs won’t pass through to consumers.

But with an increasing array of indicators suggesting otherwise, that viewpoint becomes harder to sustain.



Inflation deniers received a public scolding Tuesday from Bill Gross, head of bond giant Pimco, who told CNBC it’s naïve to keep thinking that the threat will pass.

Specifically, Gross took aim at the concept of “mean reversion,” which suggests that over time everything more or less finds a normal range and that’s what will happen to inflation once geopolitical turmoil comes to an end.

That view, he said, ignores the role that emerging markets are playing in the economy.

“The emerging and developing world is different these days. They’re less wage-sensitive and they’re more commodity-sensitive,” Gross said. “In other words, citizens are demanding more for their money and they’re reflecting that in the form of higher commodity prices. To expect that to revert over the next several years is a little pollyannaish.”

Indeed, in the age of increasingly common and impactful black swans, conventional models and the limited thinking they bring are coming under intense fire.

A good portion of the inflation debate is centered on whether the focus should be on the core or headline numbers. The latter includes food and energy costs, which are excluded from the core because, ostensibly, they are more volatile.


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But Michael Pento, senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital in New York, earlier this week penned an essay—titled “Core Incompetency—arguing that the volatility argument would hold only if food and energy were volatile above and below core inflation.

Rather, he contends, the numbers are stripped out for a more nefarious reason—because the government seeks to obfuscate when inflation is heating up.

“Once you understand this,” Pento writes, “it becomes much more plausible to argue that the Fed excludes food and energy not because those prices are volatile, but because they are high.”

Consumers and others outside the Fed seem to know the difference between the two measures.

The Conference Board has reported that one-year inflation expectations are at 6.7 percent, against the record of 7.7 percent, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey has the number at 4.6 percent, near the 5.2 percent record.

Moreover, Hershey’s [HSY 55.32 --- UNCH (0) ] recently said it’s raising prices nearly 10 percent, and Wal-Mart’s CEO Bill Simon said consumer price increases will come “at a pretty rapid rate.”

Still, that doesn’t mean Bernanke is without allies.

Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius, in a research note, said there is only “modest upside risk” to inflation despite the expectation surveys.

And Fed presidents Dennis Lockhart and Charles Evans said in recent days they are both in line with the chairman. New York Fed President William Dudley and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen also remain reliable allies.

“That’s a pretty powerful contingent,” said Gross, who believes the Fed’s hand eventually will be forced on the inflation question. “And so I suspect that they, along with a few others, will carry the day.”



From: http://ping.fm/s7bdi

Friday, April 1, 2011

No April Fool's Joke: NAMB Gets Appellate Court to Grant a Stay of the Fed's LO Compensation Rule | Mortgage News | Daily National and State Headlines

No April Fool's Joke: NAMB Gets Appellate Court to Grant a Stay of the Fed's LO Compensation Rule

Fri, 2011-04-01 00:21 —
NationalMortgag...

The National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB) scored a major victory for the entire mortgage industry late Thursday night as their expedited appeal to the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia was granted and a stay implementation of the final rule on loan officer compensation, officially known as Regulation Z; Docket No. R-1366, Truth-in-Lending, was ruled pending appeal. The stay delays the enforcement date of the LO compensation rule which was to take effect beginning Friday, April 1, 2011.

The Appellate Court stay was granted by Appellate Judges Karen LeCraft Henderson, David Tatel and Brett M. Kavanaugh, and a date of appeal was set for this coming Tuesday, April 5, 2011. This news breaks just one day after Judge Beryl Howell of U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia denied NAMB's request for a temporary restraining order (TRO) against the Federal Reserve Board’s loan originator compensation rule prior to its April 1st enforcement.

"Now that the stay has been granted, we need the industry's assistance now more than ever," said NAMB President Mike D'Alonzo. "If you are not a member of NAMB, please join. If you are a member, please ask a non-member to join. There is tremendous strength in numbers! We have a fight on our hands and we need all the support we can get. Thank you again to all those who have supported NAMB."

NAMB has been leading the charge on behalf of the entire mortgage industry in an effort to fight to preserve and protect the mortgage broker from the LO compensation rule, which, if enacted, would impact credit opportunities to consumers.

"We are thrilled that the Appellate Court has granted a stay," said Mike Anderson, CRMS, Government Affairs Committee Chair of NAMB. "You can now keep locking those loans on the old LO compensation plan!"



From: http://ping.fm/vYnY5